Value Bet Factory Review – Dropping Odds and +EV Scanner
Quick Summary
Introduction
Welcome to my Value Bet Factory review, a service that compares the odds of soft bookmakers with those of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange to identify +EV bets.
Alerts for betting opportunities are sent via Telegram and users have the ability to customise their own settings to receive alerts only for their available bookmakers. You can also set a minimum EV%, minimum Pinnacle odds drop %, and much more.
I trialled the service for two months with encouraging results. This review covers everything you need to know, including my final recommendation.
Advertised Stats
Full breakdown by sport, including number of bets, profit, turnover, and ROI.
Value Bet Factory Review Video
Service Overview
Value Bet Factory (VBF) is a service aimed at helping bettors profit from soft bookmakers using a theory known as Wisdom of the Crowd.
This theory works on the basis that sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle provide the most accurate representation of the true odds for any given event.
This is because their odds are shaped by informed sharp money. The collective wisdom of this sharp money therefore provides more accurate odds than soft bookmakers, who are less concerned with the accuracy of their pricing.
This is because whilst Pinnacle relies on the accuracy of their odds to make a profit, soft bookmakers simply limit winning accounts, relying on losing bettors to make their profits.
Sudden drops in Pinnacle’s odds are typically driven by sharp money or breaking news such as team lineups or injury reports. Soft bookmakers are much slower to react to this information, meaning bettors who are quick enough can place value bets before the soft bookmakers adjust their odds.
This is where Value Bet Factory shines.
Their Dropping Odds tool detects these Pinnacle price drops in real time. Users receive real-time Telegram alerts, enabling them to place their value bets rapidly before the odds are adjusted.
The aim is to place bets which achieve positive Closing Line Value (CLV).
Closing Line Value?
CLV simply compares the odds you took and the odds of Pinnacle at the event start time (the Closing Line). If the odds you took are greater than Pinnacle’s closing odds (after removing their margin), you have a +EV bet. It’s that simple!
Consistently beating Pinnacle’s Closing Line will ensure long-term profit. This does not guarantee profit every day, it doesn’t even guarantee profit after several hundred bets.
No betting system can guarantee a profit over the short-term.
Successful bettors are concerned only with the long-run, and there is no surer way to profit than consistently achieving positive CLV.
The founders of the Value Bet Factory know this, having collectively earned over £500,000 in profits from value betting, boasting over 15 years of combined experience in sports betting and data analysis – per their website.
The aim is to place bets which achieve positive Closing Line Value (CLV).
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Features
So, what does it actually look like in action? The service has two simple offerings:
+EV Scanner
The +EV Scanner is constantly comparing the odds of soft bookmakers with the odds of Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange. It removes the margin from the Pinnacle odds to calculate the true odds.
If the soft bookmaker’s odds are higher than Pinnacle’s fair odds, a Telegram alert is sent:
Dropping Odds
Similarly, the Dropping Odds tool sends alerts when there is a sharp, sudden drop in Pinnacle’s odds.
It calculates the fair odds, and shows the odds available at your chosen bookmakers, with the EV included:
Alert Settings
The alerts deliver only basic information, making them easy to digest and facilitating fast bet placement.
Helpfully, users have the ability to customise alerts based on their available bookmakers, odds preference, sport, markets and more.
Let’s look at the filtering options available.
Firstly, filter by sport and competitions.
I have all sports and competitions selected (currently 2,477 of them). If you prefer to exclude the lower, more obscure leagues, you can filter to include only tier 1 or tier 2, excluding the lower tier 3 leagues.
Next, configure +EV Scanner filters.
I receive +EV alerts based off both Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange lay odds with a minimum 5% EV. You can then do the exact same for the Dropping Odds tool.
Next, you can filter by markets.
Currently, the only markets available are handicap, match result, moneyline and over/under.
Note that handicap and over/under are currently not available for football, but the VBF team tells me these markets will be added in the next service update.
Next, select the bookmakers available to you from the list and the odds range. I set a minimum odds range around 1.30 and a maximum of 10.
Lastly, you can set a minimum Pinnacle or Betfair market limit / liquidity, and the max time before kick-off to receive alerts.
Market Limit and Manipulation
The Pinnacle market limit refers to the maximum liability Pinnacle will take on a market before adjusting the odds.
If the limit is €100, that is the maximum liability Pinnacle will accept on that market before adjusting the price. Therefore, the smaller the Pinnacle limit, the easier it is for the price to suddenly drop.
Syndicates sometimes manipulate low-limit Pinnacle markets by hammering one side, forcing a price drop – knowing soft books will overreact and inflate the opposite odds. Then, the syndicates will bet the other team with the soft bookmaker once their odds have been increased.
When the Pinnacle market limits are higher, say €500, it is much harder to significantly move the price as it requires larger bets.
Therefore, some users prefer to have a minimum market limit set to avoid being caught out by these false moves.
Overall, you can see the benefit of being able to customise the Telegram alerts to suit your circumstances and personal risk profile.
Some people will prefer to bet only with at least a 10% edge to reduce drawdowns and lower the overall risk. Other users will prioritise volume and get as many +EV bets on as possible, no matter how small the edge.
Bet Tracker
Value Bet Factory provides a Bet Tracker to help users log their bets, track their results and crucially monitor the CLV their bets are achieving.
A unique feature of this tool is the ability to add your bets to the tracker directly from the Telegram alert.
You can see above that each alert comes with the option to ‘Log this bet’.
From there, simply choose the bookmaker you bet with and then message the bot the odds and stake. It will then record the bet in your Bet Tracker account on the VBF website.
You can see below the bet has been added to the Bet Tracker.
Note the columns on the right. For games which have not yet been played, the tracker will show the current Pinnacle odds and fair odds (Pinnacle odds with margin removed). Additionally, the EV based on the current Pinnacle odds is also displayed. For games which have started, it displays the CLV.
The only criticism I have of the Bet Tracker is that you have to manually update the result of each bet. This is only a minor inconvenience, but it does take some time to go through your bookmaker accounts and find the result of each bet.
Pinnacle Graphs
A newly released feature is the Pinnacle odds graphs, which display how the odds and market limits have evolved over time.
The graph for any alert can be viewed directly in the Telegram app, similarly to how you can add the details of your bet to the Bet Tracker.
The above graph shows how the odds and limits for Farense have evolved since the market opened.
Farense initially opened at 4.4 when the Pinnacle market limit was $450. They then drifted to 5.6, before steaming in again and generating an alert with the current odds at 4.4, and Pinnacle’s market limit €1250.
These graphs can be useful in detecting the false moves I mentioned earlier, whereby professional syndicates attempt to manipulate the market by causing sudden moves in Pinnacle’s odds. If the graph shows the odds spiking up and down, some users will not bet on that alert.
Ideally, the graph will show a steady drop in odds, indicating a genuine market move.
Personally, I did not use the graphs as my approach was just to bet on any alerts which came through, saving time and making it truly a bet-and-forget service.
Value Bet Factory Review Results
This is a service where no two users will achieve exactly the same results. The bets you place will be dependent on the bookmakers you bet with and your VBF settings.
Additionally, it is impossible to get on all bets as alerts are sent 24/7.
To trial the service, I simply used the bookmakers available to me, betting on alerts with a minimum EV of 3% with an odds range of 1.30 – 10.00.
I would turn the bot notifications off at times when I was busy, therefore only receiving alerts when I was available to place the bets.
So how did the service perform during my two-month trial period? Very well!
The headline results:
Below I will breakdown my results by various odds ranges, sports and more!
Note: not every breakdown totals 275 bets – this is because the Bet Tracker did not record all the data for each bet, so some bets were uncategorised and thus left out of the below breakdowns.
Odds Range
I have broken the bets into two odds ranges as seen in the above table.
Bets at odds below 2.50 produced a small loss, with all of the profit being achieved in the higher odds range. However, with strong CLV in both odds brackets, I am fully confident that the lower odds selections will produce a solid long-term profit.
Sport
The majority of bets were placed on either football or tennis.
This will vary for each user depending on the bookmakers they use. Most of my profit was achieved on tennis, yet the CLV was strong in both sports so there is again nothing to be concerned with there.
Time before event
Interestingly, bets placed closer to the event start time produced a loss. However, as I am sure you have picked up by now, the CLV was strong so there are no concerns there either.
Pinnacle Limit
Lastly, I have separated the results by the Pinnacle Market Limit at the time of bet placement.
I would have expected a higher ROI and CLV on bets with a higher market limit, as the Pinnacle odds on these bets are considered sharper and more accurate. But, once again we see strong CLV across the board which is a sign that the service is working exactly as intended.
This indicates that there is no need to filter out bets with a lower Pinnacle market limit.
Customer Service
Value Bet Factory’s customer service is outstanding.
Members are invited to join a Telegram channel for general discussion, which the admins are very active in. All new members are even greeted with a welcome message!
Additionally, you can private message one of the admins, Arthur, on Telegram directly.
He was always very quick in responding to any questions I have and eager to help me get the most out of the service. The dedication to their customers was very noticeable.
Will My Accounts Be Limited?
Limitations are inevitable for profitable accounts. This is true of any kind of value betting.
However, there are some strategies you can implement to delay restrictions, and I will discuss them below.
Firstly, it is advisable to prime your accounts. This means that when you open the account, ensure the initial betting activity appears recreational – bets on the Premier League, horse racing, other major sports such as NBA, NFL etc. Also throw in plenty of multiples bets.
Bookmakers perceive bettors only placing singles to be sharper than those who bet multiples.
Once the account is primed, do not significantly increase your stakes as this will raise the attention of the bookmaker. Increase stakes gradually and continue throwing in recreational bets to blend in with your sharper action.
Finally, consider avoiding the lower, tier 3 leagues. You can filter these out in your VBF settings.
Bookmakers take less bets on these and are therefore more sensitive to bettors who do bet on them.
Using common sense will go a long way to extending the life of your valuable bookmaker accounts. Think logically about the sort of activity which is likely to draw the attention of the bookmaker. The goal is staying under the radar for as long as possible.
Alternatively, you could take the ‘smash and grab’ approach, whereby you open an account with the intention of getting on as many of these bets as possible over a weekend (as this is the busiest period).
You will inevitably be restricted by the end of the weekend (or sooner), but you will have taken plenty of value in the process.
Whatever approach you take, the goal is to squeeze as much profit as possible out of your soft bookmaker accounts before the account is inevitably limited.
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Final Verdict
Value Bet Factory is a powerful tool for those with the time and bookmaker accounts to make it work. The theory behind the service is rock solid and patient bettors will reap the rewards of the edge in the long-run.
The ability to customise alerts to your specific circumstances is a major plus and separates this service from many of its competitors.
Additionally, the Telegram integration within the Bet Tracker feature ensures you are able to quickly and accurately record each bet to track your CLV over time.
I am therefore thrilled to fully recommend the Value Bet Factory!
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Justin Ellis
With years of experience making a living from professional betting, he also produces content across a wide range of sports and racing.
