Value Bet Factory Review – Dropping Odds and +EV Scanner
Quick Summary
Introduction
Welcome to my Value Bet Factory review, where I’ll be testing this service that compares the odds of soft bookmakers with those of Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange to identify +EV bets.
Alerts for betting opportunities are sent via Telegram and users have the ability to customise their own settings to receive alerts only for their available bookmakers. You can also set a minimum EV%, minimum Pinnacle odds drop %, and much more.
The service has two simple offerings:
+EV Scanner
The +EV Scanner simply compares the odds of soft bookmakers with the odds of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange. It removes the margin from the Pinnacle odds to calculate the true odds.
If the soft bookmaker’s odds are higher than these true odds, a Telegram alert is sent:
Dropping Odds
Similarly, the Dropping Odds tool sends alerts when there is a sharp, sudden drop in Pinnacle’s odds.
It calculates the fair odds, and shows the odds available at your chosen bookmakers, with the EV included:
Why This Strategy Works
The strategy of using Pinnacle’s odds as a baseline for identifying +EV bets with soft bookmakers was not invented by Value Bet Factory. The theory first came from Joseph Buchdahl many years ago and is known as the “Wisdom of the Crowd” theory.
The idea is that as Pinnacle is a sharp bookmaker whose odds are shaped by professional punters, syndicates and the like, their odds are the most accurate guide. When there is a sudden drop in Pinnacle’s odds, this is usually due to new information such as team news, injuries, or sharp money backing a certain outcome.
Soft bookmakers are generally much slower to adjust their odds to this news than Pinnacle, and therefore a small window of opportunity exists to place a value bet before they adjust their odds.
If the odds we take with a soft bookmaker are higher than the Pinnacle closing price (after removing their margin), then we have a +EV bet.
Whilst this does not guarantee that the bet will win, consistently beating the Pinnacle closing odds will guarantee a profit over the long-term.
Value Bet Factory makes the process of exploiting these inefficiencies possible by identifying sudden Pinnacle odds drops and scanning soft bookmakers for +EV bets.
Advertised Stats
Full breakdown by sport, including number of bets, profit, turnover, and ROI.
Putting It to the Test
One of the great features of this service is the ability to filter the Telegram alerts to suit your personal circumstances. I will go into further detail in the full review, but users are able to filter by sport, league, bookmaker, odds ranges and value.
I will use these settings to target bets with at least a 5% edge. If these bets beat achieve Closing Line Value (CLV), then the service has done exactly as advertised!
I will track this, along with the actual results, using their Bet Tracker Feature, and have a full review of the service available in a few months.
Grab a 7 day free trial here
Value Bet Factory Review Results
I will report back with my results here.
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Justin Ellis
With years of experience making a living from professional betting, he also produces content across a wide range of sports and racing.
