Predictology Review – Exposed: Why It Fails to Deliver Profits

Whilst having so much available is not a bad thing, it makes it difficult to know where to start, and which areas to focus in on. As such, this review will focus on the two main selling points of Predictology: the System Builder and Value Bets Tool.

I will highlight my own experience using these tools as a long-term user of the platform, having joined Predictology on a lifetime subscription offer back in 2020.

Let’s start with the System Builder.

Predictology System Builder

The system builder is a tool where users can choose from a wide range of filters to create their own football betting systems. Let’s look at each of the different options:

Leagues

The first things to filter are the leagues, up to a maximum of 20. These are separated by winter and summer Leagues, making it easier to group several leagues from the same season into one system.

Betting Options

Then, you can filter by betting on hosts, visitors or both, as well as the market type and odds type.

A welcome change a few years ago was the ability to build a system based on the Pinnacle or Betfair Exchange odds. Previously, the only options were the maximum or average odds taken from the tracked soft bookmakers.

The recommendation was to use average odds for backing systems, and maximum odds for laying systems. However, this meant the odds never lined up with what was actually achieved when betting with Pinnacle or Betfair.

Odds

Next, you have the ability to filter by odds range for particular bet types such as win, double chance and goals markets. This is useful as you may want to build a system targeting home underdogs, so you may set the minimum win odds at 3.0 for example. 

Elo Ratings

Next, we have the Elo Ratings, which are a way of ranking teams based on results and opponent strength. They were originally developed for chess, but are now widely used in football analytics.

I have found these the most interesting in attempting to build a profitable system. There are three types of Elo ratings to sort by: Elo w/ shots on target, Standard Elo, and Elo with betting odds.

I have found Elo with betting odds to be the most useful of these, followed by Elo w/ shots on target. The standard Elo is rarely useful in my experience.

Asian Handicap Supremacy

Next, you can filter by the team’s average Asian Handicap Supremacy. You can do this for their overall, home or away form. I have not had much success using these filters.   

Form Filters

The most extensive filtering you can do is by form.

The form filters allow you to filter by dozens of different form criteria. It is these filters, along with the Elo ratings, which I have generally focused on.

One idea recommended by Predictology is to take a contrarian approach.

For example, in building an over 2.5 goals system, you may look for teams with a current 3 game sequence of under 2.5 goals. The logic is that they are due to score in their next game, or that the market is overreacting to their recent form.

Similarly, if looking to back home favourites, you could filter for teams on a current 3-game winless streak at home.

Goals Scored / Conceded

Lastly, you can filter by Goals Scored / Conceded, which like the Asian Handicap Supremacy filters, can be sorted by overall, home or away form.

As you can see, there is a wide range of possibilities and theories you can test using this system builder. You can easily spend hours tinkering with different systems: adjusting filters, adding / removing leagues, tweaking odds ranges etc.

But can I build profitable systems with it?

Does the Predictology system builder work?

The reality is that I have never actually built a system which has produced sustained profit once I’ve started betting it. A constant issue I have run into is that building a profitable system requires too much filtering that it ends up becoming illogical.

Take this example: a system produces a 1% ROI across 20 leagues and 10,000 bets in a period spanning the previous five years; a promising start but you would like to improve upon the ROI.

You notice that 8 of the leagues are producing a loss. If you remove these leagues, suddenly you have an 8% ROI across 5,000 bets.

The Extended Analysis will show a top-notch, 5-star system. Much like this lay betting system from the Premium Portfolio:

You then start betting this system but after thousands of bets have lost money. Why? Well, the answer is not obvious, but can be revealed with a little further digging.

Further Digging…

Let’s have a closer look at the above system from the Premium Portfolio, P_BM18-Lay.

The Premium Portfolio is a set of Predictology’s best systems made available only to annual members. It was previously sold as a package of six systems available for around $500 USD.

With P-BM18-Lay, there appears to be no logic behind the leagues chosen. There are leagues from South America, Asia and Europe. Some are tier-1 leagues such as the Chinese Super League, whilst others are lower-level like the Ecuador Primera B.

I suspect the reason these leagues were chosen is because they all share one characteristic: historical profit. But this does not position the system well for future profits.

You can see from the above chart that over the past 3,000 bets, the system has produced a loss.

In real time, this goes back over two years to August 2023. All 400 points of profit were achieved in the first 1,500 or so bets. Yet this is presented as a 5-star, cream of the crop system.

Is it possible that the last 3000 bets are simply bad variance, and the system will return to its profitable ways? Sure, it’s possible.

But there is something else to note about how the system initially achieved such high profits.

Inaccurate Odds Recording

Remember earlier, I mentioned that you can now filter by Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange odds using the System Builder, whereas previously you could only go by the maximum soft bookmaker price for lay systems?

Well, the majority of this system’s profit was achieved using this maximum bookmaker price.

The first several hundred bets of this system are recorded as such. The results spreadsheet shows this. I have highlighted the losing lay bets in yellow:

You can see that the odds in column M-P are all the same.

Even though the columns say Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange odds, it is using the maximum bookmaker odds. This is because at this time, this is all that Predictology had available.

The maximum bookmaker odds are always lower than the Betfair Exchange lay price.

Look at these bets from September 2024:

Here, the system is recording results to the Betfair lay price. Look at the selection showing a loss of 8.03 points. The Betfair Exchange odds are 8.60, the maximum bookmaker odds are 6.2!

So, previously this bet would have settled at 6.20. Indeed, for all of these bets, the Betfair Exchange odds are higher than the maximum bookmaker odds.

In these five bets alone, the difference between recording the Betfair odds and bookmaker odds is 4.08 points.

In other words, all of the profit achieved by this system was to unattainable odds. And when the system started recording at fair odds, it is producing a loss from 3,000 bets!

Yet, Predictology members are still being fed this system as one of the very best on offer, encouraged to run it on autopilot through BF Bot Manager.

So, clearly the outstanding performance of the several Premium Portfolio systems cannot be trusted. Thankfully, there are 36 more systems provided to members…

Predictology Member Prediction Models

All members receive access to 36 member prediction models which can also be automated through BF Bot Manager. These are systems designed by Predictology themselves through the system builder and made available to members.

Among these are a mix of backing and laying systems, covering mainly 1X2 bets and over 2.5 goals. Combined, these systems advertise thousands of points profit, with the ability to run on autopilot through BF Bot Manager.

Even running these systems to small stakes would have the potential to achieve rapid bank-growth judging by the advised statistics.

However, as seen with the Premium Portfolio, what sounds too good to be true often is, and below I will detail the many issues with these member prediction models.

Paused Models

The first concern is that only 13 of the 36 systems are actually ‘recommended’.

The page containing the strategy files for BF Bot Manager download shows the current status of each system, with some saying ‘paused’ or ‘monitor’.

This is concerning because at one point, all 36 models were recommended.

So, the performance of more than half of the models has been poor enough to no longer be recommended. This leads you to wonder how rigid the remaining 13 models are, and whether their performance will hold up over time.

Inaccurate System Descriptions

The second issue is that often the description of the model does not align with what the model actually is.

For example, the model Pr.8 is described as “tailored specifically to finding away winners across Europe”. However, three of the five leagues covered are the Korean K-League, Qatar Premier League and Qatar Q-League, which are obviously not European leagues!

Similarly, the model Pr.16 is described as “an easy to use and highly accurate Lay the Draw model, tailored specifically for Major League Soccer in the US”.

However, the four leagues covered in this model are: Bolivian League, Finnish Veikkausliiga, Japanese J-League and Norway Division 1.

And just one more example to highlight the point, from the model Pr4.HomeWin.

This model is described as a “straight forward win strategy for the Greek Super League” yet produces bets only for the Austrian and USA leagues.

Unfortunately, there are several systems whose description does not match up with what the system is actually doing. This erodes all confidence in the performance.

I suspect the reason for this is that the rules are constantly changed, tweaked and updated, but the description of them is not. This is likely because the original system is no longer producing profit, so they update the rules to something which does show a historical profit.

Unrealistic Profit Reporting

This leads to another relevant point. The advertised results of these systems are not the live results actually achievable by members. They are simply the historical performance of the system for the timespan specified in the systems rules.

There is nowhere on the Predictology site which actually shows the performance of the system since it went live as a model available to all members.

And with systems constantly being changed, removed and new ones added, it is impossible to know the true performance of the member prediction models as a whole.

And that’s not all…

Beyond the issue of inaccurate system descriptions, some of the systems simply do not have enough bets to be honestly recommended.

Take Pr.3 for example, which has historical results dating back to 2018. The system has produced only 50 bets in 8 years!

It is simply not possible to have any degree of confidence that these bets will be profitable in the future. 

Pr.19 is another bizarre system. Described as “tailored specifically for laying teams across the major leagues in Europe”, the system produces bets in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.

And the system doesn’t even produce lay bets… each bet is recorded as a 1 point back bet in the results spreadsheet.

These errors and contradictions appear across almost all member models. There are 36 systems available to members and I could not confidently follow or recommend even one of them.

Despite all of these problems, Predictology still offers an ‘Upgrade Opportunity’, whereby they share the rules of each of the 36 models. This costs $325 and is advertised as “Only $9.30 per model”.

However, you have to question how useful it would be to know the rules of the 23 models no longer recommended!

Additionally, it would be hard to have any confidence that the rules you are purchasing reflect the current model displayed on the site given the inconsistencies I have highlighted.

More Issues

Constant On Selling

This leads into my next criticism of Predictology.

As you browse the site, you continue to come across various upgrade opportunities, e-books, trading courses, tipping services, value betting strategies etc.

These advertising campaigns are also regularly sent to their mailing list subscribers. In my five years as a member, there have been dozens of different products advertised to members. There is a new product sold on a weekly basis.

Almost all of these offerings are just strategies to use with a Predictology membership. Different systems, value bet filters, trading settings etc.

My criticism here is twofold:

1) The goal is obviously to make extra money from on selling these services, NOT to actually help paying members profit from their initial subscription. I am not opposed to Predictology making money, but it is clear that equipping members with the best information to use the tools is not the top priority. Otherwise, they would give this information to members free of charge.

2) The products sold generally lose money. Many of the tipster services are discontinued only for another one to pop up months later. Strategies are constantly updated, tweaked and re-sold in a different format. The Discord community was full of criticism from members who purchased and subscribed to these services along the way.

Speaking of Discord…

Discord Community

Predictology used to have a discord community with plenty of channels for members to discuss anything football, betting or Predictology related amongst each other and with the Predictology admin.

However, the server was suddenly shut down over a year ago. Here is what Predictology told me:

“What began as a channel to discuss systems and share ideas, became a platform to bash Predictology at every turn. That helps nobody and it was discontinued.”

Having been involved in the Discord community for a number of years, I can attest to the fact that there was regular, negative feedback regarding the site’s functionality and results. Users were often frustrated at basic things such as the site consistently being down for unplanned maintenance on Saturday mornings, which for many users was the only time they had available to use the site. 

Other sources of frustration were that the profit figures advertised in promotional material and emails did not match the actual results of most users.

The vast majority of this feedback was designed to help improve the site. Everyone in the channel was a subscriber and therefore invested in the success of the platform, so the motive was to improve areas of the site which were constantly underperforming.

It was therefore disappointing that the Discord was shut down as this closed an avenue of communication to Predictology and between members themselves.

I had many useful conversations privately with other members that shaped my use of Predictology and other betting services. I can only conclude that Predictology did not want new members seeing the criticisms of the service, choosing to shut down the server instead of simply fixing the problems.

Many of the problems raised years ago are still unresolved on the site today.

Predictology Value Bets Tool

By now, it is clear that the system builder and member models are not useful tools. Let’s see if it’s a different story for the Value Bets, which is an entirely different tool.

I will let Predictology describe it in their own words, taken from their ‘Value Betting Introduction and Strategy Guide’:

“We have leveraged our database of over 400,000 matches, spanning more than 68 leagues and competitions to develop a robust and accurate value betting platform.

Layered across our database are complex rules and algorithms which creating for every team and market to determine the true probability of an event happening.

We then scour our pool of over 180 bookmakers to quickly help you identify markets offering value and where the best place to place those bets.

But we do not stop there. At Predictology, we go a step further and do something no other value betting provider offers and that is, identifying value bets on the Betting Exchanges, like Betfair.”

The 31-page guide offers various suggestions and filters for how to best use the tool.

At the end of the guide members are offered an ‘Upgrade Opportunity’ to obtain the exact filters used by Predictology for an additional payment of $997 USD.

They also note there is only one remaining package available to be sold, which has interestingly been the case for several months now.

I decided to use my own filters based on common sense and the recommendations they make in the guide and member emails.

I have set the odds range to 1.50 – 4.00, with an +EV (Expected Value) of between 5 and 10%.

This follows Predictology’s recommendation of avoiding higher odds and setting a specific EV range.

Additionally, all bets are placed on Betfair Exchange several hours before kickoff, as per the advice seen below to bet as early as possible on the Betfair Exchange before the market is fully formed.

Predictology Review – Value Bets Results

So, how did the Value Bets tool perform on the Betfair Exchange?

These results do not paint a pretty picture. Remember that each of these bets carry a 5-10% expected ROI. Predictology’s fair odds calculations are extremely inaccurate. This is the only conclusion to draw from these results.

Additionally, there is no angle to improve the returns by looking at a specific bet type, as seen here:

Similarly, focussing on a higher or lower odds range does not produce any angle in either:

Like the member prediction models, the value bets do not have an edge over the market and cannot be used to produce a long-term profit.

Any additional filtering or tinkering with odds ranges, EV or bet types to improve results would be a pointless exercise.

Final Verdict

I cannot recommend subscribing to Predictology. In fact, I would strongly advise against it. 

The site is full of prediction models which don’t work and whose historical results cannot be trusted or verified. There are broken links and outdated videos and articles all over the site.

Members are bombarded with constant new product sales. Customer service is quick to reply and always courteous, but rarely able to solve problems. The fair odds calculations produced by their AI algorithm are inaccurate.

In my opinion, a blindfolded monkey throwing darts would have a greater chance at beating the market than a Predictology user.

Despite my findings, some readers may wish to see Predictology in action for themselves. If so, there’s a £1 trial available here. Just don’t say we didn’t warn you!