Introduction
Tagline: "Grab Football Profits Quickly And Conveniently With Server Generated Tips!" - Andrew David, Back of the Net
Welcome to our Back of the Net review, where we aim to find out whether this football lay betting system is really worth your time.
Does Back of the Net work? Let’s find out!
The system comes from Andrew David, a well known name in the betting world and the creator of several popular strategies. Most people know him for the Little Acorns system, which remarkably is still around after 20 odd years.
While many of Andrew’s past systems have focused on horse racing, Back of the Net is purely a football based strategy.
The classic "Lay the Draw" strategy is at the core of it, which is a long time favourite amongst football traders. But Back of the Net adds a slight twist.
Rather than actively trading during the match, this system takes a more hands off, hybrid approach. You lay the draw in-play after receiving an alert, then simply leave the bet to run.
In other words, once your lay bet is placed, there’s no need to trade out, as it’s a true "set and forget" system.
To kick off our Back of the Net review, we started by taking a look at the official results for the service. They start from May 2023, and at first glance, they look impressive.
But… we did have a concern as we started digging into them.
There were quite a few errors in the data that we had to correct before we could properly analyse the results. This came across as a little unprofessional and raised questions about how they’re reviewing their own performance.
In fact, we weren’t even able to calculate the ROI without first fixing these issues, so we're not sure how they managed it.
It would seem that they have calculated everything manually.
After thoroughly going through the results and recalculating everything, we noticed a discrepancy in the reported profit figures.
But, cue the drumroll...
It actually worked out as even better results!
The original results showed a profit of 126.88 points, but our corrected calculations came to 142.99 points.
Make of that what you will.
Back of the Net - Historical Results |
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Bank management and staking are where things get particularly interesting with Back of the Net.
The service recommends using their “15 Step Modified Extended Fibonacci Sequence”, which is a slightly safer variation of loss recovery staking.
However, like any form of progressive staking, it still carries risk with a long losing run.
During our analysis of the results, we noticed the highest multiplier reached was 21, which followed a losing run of 12 consecutive bets.
Now, because this is a lay betting system with in-play odds below 2.00, the full stake isn’t at risk. Even so, that losing run resulted in a drawdown of 42.81 points.
Luckily, the 21 pointer won and ended the streak. But what if it hadn’t?
That single loss would have pushed the total drawdown to 57.74 points.
The next step in the sequence is a 27.5 multiplier, so although a 100 point starting bank gives you a decent buffer, it's clear that extended losing streaks can quickly eat into it.
And they do happen.
Then there’s the psychological side of it.
Would you feel comfortable staking such a large portion of your bank when you're deep into the sequence? That’s something to seriously consider before committing to this staking method.
Because of this, for our Back of the Net review we’ll be tracking results at level stakes and will not be using the loss recovery staking plan.
Unfortunately, due to how the service has recorded their results, it’s a bit tricky to work out historical performance using level stakes. But... we’re working on it and we hope to include a full breakdown when we post our final review.
Back of the Net Review - Key Details
The Back of the Net service provides football lay betting tips, which can be placed either on the Betfair Exchange or with traditional bookmakers.
If you're using bookmakers, you'll need to place a combination of two bets in the match odds market to replicate the outcome of a lay bet.
Each tip comes with guidance on the maximum odds you should lay at. All selections are sent out via email, and that’s currently the only way to receive them.
One important thing to note: you’re not expected to bet on every single selection. The email advice explains:
"Please don't worry if you miss this one, just wait for the next alert that's convenient for you. This service has been designed to work around your schedule so that you can dip in and out at times that suit you."
When are tips sent?
Varies
How many tips are there?
Varies
What is the advised bank?
100 Points
Back of the Net Review - Notes
For this trial, we are aiming for at least 2-3 months of results in order to be able to analyse results fairly. We will be recording Betfair Exchange results only.
Our results include profit and loss using using the level staking plan.
Please note that Fibonacci staking plan recommended for this service is a form of loss recovery which we do not endorse.
Results Update #1
We have to admit, this has been a demanding trial so far!
The service can send out bet alerts at any time of the day or night and although the advice is that you don't need to place every single bet, we’ve aimed to keep this review as thorough as possible by covering them all.
The only exceptions were bets where a goal was scored shortly after the alert. Those wouldn’t have counted in practice, so we’ve left them out of our results entirely.
At the end of the first month, we finished 2.33 points down, which equates to a £23.30 loss from a £1,000 starting bank.
A total of 89 lay bets were placed, with 36 of them returning a profit. That gives a strike rate of 40.5%.
After all the effort it took to follow every bet, we couldn’t help but feel a bit disappointed with the first month's performance. Still, a small loss is far from the worst outcome.
Here are our full results so far:
You might be wondering how things would have looked using the Fibonacci staking sequence recommended by the service.
We started by calculating the level stakes results based on the official odds provided, which gave us a loss of 3.97 points. Using the Fibonacci staking method, the loss was smaller, at 2.2 points based on those same odds.
So, while the first month ended in the red, the loss was relatively minor, especially considering the volume of bets and the intensive nature of the trial.
It’s still early days and we’re looking forward to seeing how things progress in month two.