TRIAL OVERVIEW
Quick Summary
Introduction
The Value Machine has been on my radar for a while now.
For quite some time, it wasn’t available to new members. The creator, Kieran Ward, seems to open and close access periodically, presumably to protect existing users and make sure everyone has a fair shot at getting their bets on. Fair enough.
I’ve heard plenty of good things about it from others in the betting world. Some claim it’s been a game changer for their horse racing betting.
But as always, the real question is, does it actually work?
Now that I’ve finally got my hands on it, I’ll be putting The Value Machine through its paces and sharing my results with you here.
The Value Machine at a Glance
The Value Machine looks for horses that are likely to go off at a shorter price than the odds currently available. This means you’re getting “value”, or in other words, backing something at a bigger price than its true chance of winning.
Instead of relying on form reading, speed ratings, or trainer trends, the software focuses purely on analysing the betting markets.
It looks for patterns and market signals that suggest a horse’s price is likely to shorten before the off.
These market movements are then used to flag up selections that historically go off at lower prices than they were when identified, suggesting the user has locked in value.
Over the long term, consistently backing horses at prices above their true odds should theoretically result in a profit.
The Value Machine Strategies
When I signed up to The Value Machine, I was given access to a member’s area that includes the web-based software, video tutorials and a range of strategies you can use with the tool.
The four strategies listed were:
- Mid-Range Consistency
- Back As Many Selections As You Possibly Can!
- Low Risk / Low Workload
- Big Price Betfair SP Strategy
What stood out straight away was the flexibility.
The software can be used in a way that suits your lifestyle, whether that’s going all in and betting on every selection it generates (since all picks are marked as value and should, in theory, be profitable over the long term), or taking a more cautious approach by narrowing down to certain odds ranges or risk levels.
One pleasant surprise was the inclusion of a Betfair Exchange strategy. I hadn’t expected that, as I assumed The Value Machine was designed solely for bookmaker use.
I planned to keep a close eye on the Exchange results to see how they compared.
Advertised Stats
Based on £10 stakes
Bets
Profit
Strike Rate
ROI
Putting It to the Test
The advertised stats are based on backing every single selection The Value Machine has generated since July 2021.
Of course, that’s not a realistic approach for most of us, but it does give a sense of what the software is capable of.
For example, narrowing the odds range to between 3.00 and 8.00 more than halved the number of selections, yet still produced a profit of £48,200 and an 8.95% ROI to £10 stakes.
For this trial, my plan is to back as many selections as I can while I’m at my desk. I won’t be applying any odds filters or manually narrowing the selections. I’ll just take what comes.
There is an option to set up Telegram alerts, which I might try if I’m struggling to get enough bets on during the day, but for now I’ll see how things go.
The recommended starting bank depends on the odds range you choose when setting up the software. Since I’m backing all selections without filtering, the recommended starting bank is 300 points.
If I’d limited the odds to a maximum of 3.00, the recommended bank would be much smaller at just 75 points.
Alongside the main trial, I’ll be tracking the Betfair SP results separately with their own bank, just to see how they stack up against the bookmaker bets.
How The Value Machine Works
The Value Machine is web-based software providing horse racing tips, with a number of strategies available for narrowing down bets.
All tips are available via the software and it can be linked to Telegram for notifications to your devices.
- Time of tips: All day & evening
- Bet volume: Average 80 tips per day available
- Advised starting bank: 300 points
Trial Results
My Value Machine review ran over a period of three months, during which I checked the software for value bets one to two times per day. My aim was to record several hundred bets to get a reasonable indication of how the service performed.
Unfortunately, the results were pretty awful and, after logging 371 bets, I decided to bring the trial to an end.
By this point, the trial was down by almost £1,400. Based on £10 stakes and the recommended 300-point starting bank (£3,000), that represented a 46.7% decline.
Even so, it felt particularly brutal, and I would not personally have felt comfortable with this level of drawdown if I had been betting real money.
I also tracked the Betfair SP results for comparison, which fared even worse, with the bank declining by 52.8%
Here are my full results:
Final Verdict
The concept behind The Value Machine software seems solid in theory, but the reality was a prolonged period of heavy losses and a drawdown that would be extremely difficult for most bettors to stomach.
There was also no clear sign that the performance was stabilising or improving as the sample size grew, which gave me little confidence to continue the trial.
For those reasons, I won’t be continuing with the service and I’m unable to recommend The Value Machine. There are more consistent betting services available that offer a far better balance between risk, effort and potential reward.
NOT RECOMMENDED
