Back of the Net Review – Does This Lay Betting System Work?
Quick Summary
Introduction
For my Back of the Net review, I am diving into how this football lay betting system works and finding out whether it’s genuinely worth following.
The system comes from Andrew David, a well known name in the betting world and the creator of several popular strategies. Most people know him for the Little Acorns system, which remarkably is still around after 20 odd years.
While many of Andrew’s past systems have focused on horse racing, Back of the Net is purely a football based strategy.
The classic “Lay the Draw” strategy is at the core of it, which is a long time favourite amongst football traders. But Back of the Net adds a slight twist.
Rather than actively trading during the match, this system takes a more hands off, hybrid approach. You lay the draw in-play after receiving an alert, then simply leave the bet to run.
In other words, once your lay bet is placed, there’s no need to trade out, as it’s a true “set and forget” system.
Advertised Stats
Based on £10 stakes
£1,430
42.4%
6.39%
143%
I Had to Check the Maths…
To kick off my Back of the Net review, I started by taking a look at the official results for the service. They start from May 2023, and at first glance, they look impressive.
But… I did have some concern as I started digging into them.
There were quite a few errors in the data that I had to correct before I could properly analyse the results. This came across as a little unprofessional and raised questions about how they’re reviewing their own performance.
In fact, I wasn’t even able to calculate the ROI without first fixing these issues, so I’m not sure how they managed it. It would seem that they have calculated everything manually.
After thoroughly going through the results and recalculating everything, I noticed a discrepancy in the reported profit figures.
But, cue the drumroll…
It ended up delivering even better results than expected!
The original results showed a profit of 126.88 points, but my corrected calculations came to 142.99 points.
Make of that what you will.
Putting It to the Test
Bank management and staking are where things get particularly interesting with Back of the Net.
The service recommends using their “15 Step Modified Extended Fibonacci Sequence”, which is a slightly safer variation of loss recovery staking.
However, like any form of progressive staking, it still carries risk with a long losing run.
During my analysis of the results, I noticed the highest multiplier reached was 21, which followed a losing run of 12 consecutive bets.
Now, because this is a lay betting system with in-play odds below 2.00, the full stake isn’t at risk.
Even so, that losing run resulted in a drawdown of 42.81 points. Luckily, the 21 pointer won and ended the streak. But what if it hadn’t?
That single loss would have pushed the total drawdown to 57.74 points.
The next step in the sequence is a 27.5 multiplier, so although a 100 point starting bank gives you a decent buffer, it’s clear that extended losing streaks can quickly eat into it.
And they do happen.
Then there’s the psychological side of it.
Would you feel comfortable staking such a large portion of your bank when you’re deep into the sequence? That’s something to seriously consider before committing to this staking method.
Because of this, for my Back of the Net review, I’ll be tracking results at level stakes and will not be using the loss recovery staking plan.
Unfortunately, due to how the service has recorded their results, it’s a bit tricky to work out the historical performance using level stakes. But… I’m working on it and I hope to include a full breakdown with my final review.
Try out Back of the Net with a 30 day trial here.
Key Details
The Back of the Net service provides football lay betting tips, which can be placed either on the Betfair Exchange or with traditional bookmakers.
If using bookmakers, a combination of two bets need to be placed in the match odds market to replicate the outcome of a lay bet.
Each tip comes with guidance on the maximum odds you should lay at. All selections are sent out via email, and that’s currently the only way to receive them.
- Time of tips: Varies
- Bet volume: Varies
- Advised starting bank: 100 points
Back of the Net Review Results
Results Update #1
I have to admit, this has been a demanding trial so far!
The service can send out bet alerts at any time of the day or night and although the advice is that you don’t need to place every single bet, I’ve aimed to keep this review as thorough as possible by covering them all.
The only exceptions were bets where a goal was scored shortly after the alert. Those wouldn’t have counted in practice, so I’ve left them out of my results entirely.
At the end of the first month, I finished 2.33 points down, which equates to a £23.30 loss from a £1,000 starting bank.
A total of 89 lay bets were placed, with 36 of them returning a profit. That gives a strike rate of 40.5%.
After all the effort it took to follow every bet, I couldn’t help but feel a bit disappointed with the first month’s performance. Still, a small loss is far from the worst outcome.
Here are my full results so far:
You might be wondering how things would have looked using the Fibonacci staking sequence recommended by the service.
I started by calculating the level stakes results based on the official odds provided, which gave me a loss of 3.97 points. Using the Fibonacci staking method, the loss was smaller, at 2.2 points based on those same odds.
So, while the first month ended in the red, the loss was relatively minor, especially considering the volume of bets and the intensive nature of the trial.
It’s still early days and I’m looking forward to seeing how things progress in month two.
Results Update #2
After another month of tracking selections for my Back of the Net review, I’m back with an update, although I’m afraid it hasn’t been the most encouraging of months.
At the end of month two, I’m still hovering around break-even, sitting on a small loss of 0.26 points to level stakes since the trial began.
This month saw 87 lay bets in total, with 38 of them winning (i.e., the match didn’t end in a draw).
Unfortunately, that strike rate wasn’t quite enough to push the results into profit.
Here’s how the service has performed over the full trial period:
It’s feels like quite a bit of effort for very little reward, at least using level stakes.
Below are my full results for month two alone:
I worked out the results based on the odds advised in the service’s emails. To level stakes, that meant a loss of 3.47 points for the month overall.
However, if you’d followed the Fibonacci staking plan they recommend, the month would’ve ended with a profit of 6.58 points.
That said, it’s worth noting that stakes increased quite sharply at times, reaching 4 point lays on a couple of occasions. So while the profits look better on paper, there’s clearly more risk involved when using this approach.
Final Verdict
After two months of tracking Back of the Net, I won’t be recommending the service.
The results have been disappointing based on using level stakes, with a small overall loss and no clear signs of consistent profit.
Risky Staking Plan
Although the advised Fibonacci staking plan did return a small profit of 4.38 points over the two months, I’m not comfortable endorsing it due to the increased risk and volatility involved.
Stakes can quickly escalate after a run of losing bets, and most people would start to feel uncomfortable once they reach the higher levels of the sequence. The risk of busting your bank is a genuine concern, and it’s not something I’m willing to entertain, let alone recommend.
For me, the potential reward doesn’t justify the added risk and the level stakes performance simply hasn’t been strong enough to warrant continued use.
Time Commitment
Another thing worth mentioning is the amount of time and attention this service demands.
Each selection is sent via email and you need to be available to act on the alerts in real time.
Although it’s fine to miss the odd one here and there, it still becomes a burden having to stay alert throughout the day and evening. There’s no set schedule or fixed routine, which makes it hard to plan around, especially if you have other commitments.
Poor Attention to Detail
Last but not least, the lack of attention to detail in the service’s results reporting is a concern. I spotted many errors in the results, as mentioned at the beginning of my review.
And now, it seems there may be more disruption on the horizon, with this message recently added to the official results:
“We are having problems scraping the current scoreline & odds on some alerts, therefore for time being it will just say: Current Status: DRAW & we will leave out the odds as its not really important so long as the match is currently a Draw ….Bottom line is, just LAY THE DRAW if/when the odds are under 2.0 on each alert.”
The fact that they don’t think the odds are important in their results speaks volumes.
If you still want to try Back of the Net for yourself, despite my verdict, you can click here to try it for 30 days risk-free.
Josh Henderson
Cutting through the noise to find tipsters that actually deliver. On a mission to uncover the best betting services in the UK.
