The Gambler’s Fallacy and its Relation to Sports Betting

If you enjoy a bet on your favourite sports, you’ve probably come across the Gambler’s Fallacy, even if you didn’t realise it at the time. It’s a common trap that can lead to poor betting decisions and ultimately, lost money.

The Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken belief that past outcomes somehow influence future ones, even when there’s no real connection. While this way of thinking is often linked to casino games like roulette or blackjack, it’s just as common in sports betting and even pops up in everyday life.

In this article, we’ll take a closer look at what the Gambler’s Fallacy actually is, how it shows up in sports betting and how you can avoid falling for it. The ultimate goal is to protect your bankroll and bet more wisely.

Origins of the Gambler’s Fallacy

While the term “Gambler’s Fallacy” was first introduced by the economist John Maynard Keynes in 1921, its association is more closely tied to the world of gambling, particularly in casinos and bookmaker establishments.
 
One of the most iconic instances of this fallacy unfolded at the prestigious Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, etching itself into the annals of gambling lore.

In an extraordinary streak, the roulette ball remarkably landed on black a staggering 26 consecutive times.
 
This unprecedented run of black numbers sent shockwaves through the casino, drawing a captivated crowd around the roulette table.

As the black numbers continued to dominate, many gamblers fell into the trap of thinking that red must be “due” to appear, leading them to place ill-fated bets on red.
 
Of course, eventually, a red number did emerge, granting some gamblers their long-awaited victory. However, the question remains: how many times did they bet on red and lose money before that 27th spin finally favoured them?
 
For those who kept increasing their bets throughout the sequence, driven by the conviction that “red was surely due soon,” losses could have mounted significantly before the black streak came to an end.
 
Subsequently, some of these individuals might have developed the false belief that a substantial streak of reds was bound to follow, perpetuating the cycle of the fallacy.
 
This captivating event is frequently cited as a quintessential illustration of the Gambler’s Fallacy in action, which is why you may also encounter it referred to as the Monte Carlo Fallacy in gambling circles.

The Maths – Simplified

Let’s imagine you’re engaged in the simple act of flipping a standard coin.

This coin has two sides: heads (H) and tails (T).
 
With each flip of the coin, the probability is 50% for it to land on heads and another 50% for it to land on tails. These probabilities remain consistent, completely unaffected by what happened in previous flips.
 
Now, this is where the intriguing fallacy creeps in.

You might find yourself believing that if you’ve encountered a series of consecutive heads, like HHHHH, the next flip is more likely to produce tails because you’re convinced it’s “due” to balance things out. This misconception is where most people stumble when grappling with probability.
 
In actuality, each coin flip stands as an independent event.
 
The coin possesses no memory or preference based on past outcomes.
 
The likelihood of heads or tails appearing on the subsequent flip steadfastly maintains itself at 50%, just as it did in the previous flips.
 
So, even if you’ve witnessed heads appearing five times in a row, the odds of heads showing up once more in the next flip still stand at 50%, mirroring the 50% chance for tails.
 
The fundamental mathematical principle at play here is that the probability of each event, be it heads or tails, remains constant, unswayed by prior results.
 
While it’s true that, eventually, perhaps after a million or more coin flips, you may observe results approaching an equilibrium of roughly 50% heads and 50% tails, it’s essential to recognise that in most gambling scenarios, individuals are typically dealing with shorter streaks of bets.

The Gambler’s Fallacy in Sports Betting

So how does this tie into sports betting?
 
Many punters fall into the trap of thinking that the probability of a particular outcome in an event is swayed by past outcomes, particularly in situations involving random events.
 
This could be an outcome of a football match, a horse race or really any sporting event that isn’t a complete one-off and can build up to a run of winning or losing scenarios.
 
Here are some examples of how the Gambler’s Fallacy relates to sports betting:

1) Football streaks

On doing your betting research, you find that a football team won 50% of their matches last season. You see that this season the team have won six games in a row and may believe that they should either be due to lose a game soon, or their streak should continue.
 
However, past wins don’t dictate future outcomes and results can vary based on opposition, injuries and even the weather.
 
Perhaps Erling Haaland isn’t able to play for Manchester City this week, putting a dent in their scoring chances. It is easy to see how simple things like this can have a major impact on a team’s winning or losing streak.

2) Horse Racing

In the world of horse racing, you might come across a horse that has recently clinched victory in several consecutive races.
 
The temptation to assume that the horse is “over-performing” and therefore unlikely to win its next race can be strong. On the other hand, you may think that the horse is more likely to continue on a winning run.
 
As with football players, a horse’s performance hinges on a multitude of variables, extending far beyond its previous triumphs. Professional tipsters often spend a lot of time analysing all sorts of factors other than just winning streaks.

3) Tennis player’s hot streak

Consider a tennis player who has been on an impressive winning run. It’s not uncommon for punters to speculate that this player is on the brink of losing soon.
 
However, in the sport of tennis, a player’s performance can be influenced by many factors that stretch beyond their past results, making it a complex and unpredictable game.

How to Avoid Falling into the Gambler’s Fallacy Trap

Conclusion

To wrap things up, the Gambler’s Fallacy is a good reminder that we humans love to find patterns, even when there aren’t any.

In sports betting, it’s caught plenty of people out. Bettors end up making expensive mistakes because they believe past results somehow control what happens next.

But as we’ve talked about in this article, every match is its own thing. Loads of different factors can come into play, and things can change in a flash.

If you want to give yourself the best shot at success, you need to get comfortable with how probability actually works and avoid jumping into bets just because something “feels due.”

At the end of the day, understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy helps you keep a cool head. It’s all about staying focused, making informed choices and avoiding the traps that this kind of thinking can lead to.

In a world where anything can happen, that kind of mindset can make all the difference.